Comments 10

最后一个站着的人

May 24, 2016 Mark Leonard

伦敦—现代地缘政治的许多内容都符合《权力的游戏》的情节，许多国家饱受政治和经济压力，唯一的希望是对手比自己先崩溃。因此，它们的政府一面紧紧抓住权力，一面利用对手的内部弱点。

俄罗斯总统普京就是非常好的例子。它最近在叙利亚和乌克兰的动作看起来就像是地缘政治海盗。但其冒险主义的根源在于国内弱势。比如，俄罗斯吞并克里米亚很大程度上是为了给普京政权提供新的合法性。此前，俄罗斯经历了一个不满的冬天，示威者走上街头反对普京回归总统宝座。

敌对势力——主要是美国和欧盟——对俄罗斯实施了制裁，希望以此扩大俄罗斯精英阶层的裂缝，这是在利用普京尚未让俄罗斯经济摆脱石油和天然气依赖实现多元化的事实。反过来，普京希望俄罗斯经济能撑到乌克兰率先崩溃。为了加速这一过程，克里姆林宫可谓无所不用其极：它发动军事入侵，操纵乌克兰政坛，进行能源勒索，并参与信息战。

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Allen Petrich Oct 30, 2016

Mark, do not believe you have made even handed assessment, you are more arguing for one side. One example, Russia annexed Crimea not for your reason but to save the fleet's warm water port. If the US were in their geographical situation, we (US) would do the same. The country with resources has always held the best cards. UK did it by conquering others and extracting resources. Russia has the resources, China does not and needs its relations in Africa and elsewhere. The US, in fact, owes its position and strength to resources starting developing from the 17th Century: Fisheries, Timber resources, Agriculture plus significant self sufficient in oil and an exporter and other prime mineral resources. It appears from what you have written you did not attempt an assessment of the situation but are arguing from the point of view of a participant in the Game. David has some good points. Next time either state you are representing one entity and making its argument or do research deeper and try to make a disengaged assessment.
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David Morgan Jun 10, 2016

I am an ex Cold War warrier an ex Detachment commander Artillery Intelligence some quite highly classified stuff at the ime was a mainstay of my job. Putin is great for defence industries and NATO you have to love the clown, let trump get into power, it will be fun. The Chinese have massive problems. I have first hand experience as I taught English at university there, unrest is simmering just below the surface. The Sykes Picot Middle East is in full self destruct mode, plus the Saudi's and Iranians both know that we are at the beginning of the end of the oil era. Climate change is real and coming to a town near you soon. I have no worries apart from a broken back as I will be dead in a short time. As they say in Game of Thrones "Winter is coming"
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Zsolt Hermann May 28, 2016

Probably the Game of Thrones comparison is a very accurate one.
But it is not fortunate.
It means that in today's modern globally interconnected and interdependent world we still try to succeed with ancient, barbaric, outdated methods.

The upheaval, hysteria surrounding Trump and other populist "leaders/potential leaders" proves how much people do not trust democracy, how much even this article suggest seemingly single individuals could turn fortunes, the fate of the world around.
We are in a complete schizophrenia proudly talking about our "quasi-democratic system" while hoping for "superheroes", super-leaders to save us, show us the way forward.

In today's global, integral world only mutually complementing cooperation, "collective intelligence" can provide solutions for global problems and safeguard our continuing survival.
The problem is our instinctively self-serving, self-justifying and greedy nature suits "Game of Thrones" behaviour, attitude, ruthless and exclusive competition, success at the expense of others more than the crucial integration, mutual cooperation.

But we no choice since existing in a global world is not a free choice it is an evolutionary necessity.
Thus we need to start a brand new and practical global, integral education program so we can start adapting to the system around us.
I do not think we truly want to see "Game of Thrones inspired" scenes in real life, on our streets, in our own homes all over the world.
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bullxead Igor May 25, 2016

It's funny article. Facts, some of them are correct.
Conclusion is funny.
Mighty Russia - doing that and this.
Let's check trading volumes, financiers, allies - in real life, everyday world.
Fighting for survival for Russia and Iran - and business as usual for majority called mess of democracy and global economy.
NATO. EU, ordinary people and global world.
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j. von Hettlingen May 25, 2016

Mark Leonard sees a "last-man-standing" mindset in politics. It is true that some leaders are under "so much political and economic stress that their only hope is that their rivals collapse before they do." They seek to "cling to power while exploiting rivals’ internal weaknesses."
The author highlights the reckless behaviour of Russia, Saudi Arabia and China, which has had a huge impact on geopolitics. What is interesting is that these countries are autocracies, that lack the checks and balances to limit their leaders' domestic powers. In times of economic hardships, and in an effort to avoid social unrest and popular uprising, autocrats try to distract citizens from their grievances by diverting their attention to other issues abroad. They create a geopolitical crisis somewhere and stoke nationalism at home. However they often underestimate the vagary of their unilateral actions, which sometimes backfire.
Putin's "adventurism" is no doubt a "prime example" for his "domestic weakness." In the run-up to his re-election in 2012, Russia was gripped by the biggest anti-government protests since Soviet times. Rights activists had been jailed or otherwise marginalised, allowing him to rule with an iron grip. But it was the conflict in Ukraine erupted in November 2013, which inspired him to annex Crimea in March 2014. This aggression has since hurt Russia's economy, but not Putin's popularity. It explains why Russians are willing to put up with sanctions and economic hardships, for which they hold the West responsible. Putin seeks to destabilise the EU, by supporting far-right parties, and hopping for Britain's exit from the EU etc. He also plays a crucial role in bolstering the Assad regime in Syria and adding fuel to the sectarian fire in the region, alienating the US-led coalition forces. Putin does it all in an effort to have Western sanctions lifted, and to send a message that Russia is a global player to be reckoned with. But he has failed to realise that even without sanctions Russia will not be able to become an economic superpower. The country needs political and economic reforms. He may hang onto power for a while at home, but on the international stage, there is no way that he will be the "last man standing."
Saudi Arabia's reluctance to reduce its oil production in order to push up oil prices has taken a toll on its revenues. However it is determined to eliminate political and economic rivals, like preventing Iran from benefiting from the lifting of sanctions, and putting American companies in shale-energy industry out of business. It remains to be seen which of the two - Iran or Saudi Arabia - would emerge as the "last-man standing," because Iran's democratically elected leaders are keen on moving forward, while it doesn't seem to be the case in Saudi Arabia.
The author says China aspires to overtake the US as the world's largest economy, hoping that a weakening America would allow Beijing to re-assert control in Asia. While in Washington "Congress has been gridlocked on domestic reforms," Beijing has to grapple with a myriad of daunting challenges - to reform its economy based on state-capitalism, improve the environment, eradicate corruption, close the wealth gap and provide for good public services etc. China's territorial disputes with various littoral countries in the East and South China Seas aim to divert the domestic public's attention from economic woes and other problems. President Xi has concentrated power in his hands, stifling voices critical of him and the one-party rule, making him the most powerful leader since Mao Zedong. Yet it is still uncertain whether he would be the "last man standing" vis-à-vis the 1,3 billion Chinese.
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Steve Hurst May 25, 2016

Sounds like business as usual
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prashanth kamath May 25, 2016

"He imposed economic sanctions, spread rumors of corruption in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s inner circle, invited the leader of a Kurdish party to Moscow, and allegedly sent arms to the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The political scientist Ivan Krastev believes that “Putin seems to have dug in for a long-term policy of sapping Turkey’s economy and undermining Erdoğan politically.”

I would say, well done Putin!
Why US, with its friends in the Gulf, has a patent on creating all evil spirits?
Taliban, ISIS and now Tayyip Erdoğan.
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Petey Bee May 24, 2016

Saudi A's main rival isn't Iran, and Russia's main rival isn't Ukraine or the EU. They are each other's primary adversaries. Economies based on natural resource extraction, hoping to use that as a ticket to prosperity (like Norway, Australia, or Canada). #3 and #4 military powers, respectively, to maintain control of said resources. And it seems to be a bitter struggle, could be a last-man-standing, With the US neither a major consumer nor producer, it could sit out the conflict, but our leaders are only just beginning to flirt with the possibility of restraint. China stands to gain big time. EU destabilization was entirely self inflicted, with support for Libya adventures, and bungled response to financial crisis.
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M M May 24, 2016

Since this “Commander In Chief” turned “Preacher” turned “Comedian” assumed power, the whole affair became a very crowded “Kindergarten”. One only needs to look at the extravagance of the latest trip that Obama did to Europe and the ME vs. the one that Putin is planning this week-end to Greece. Their latest and most up to date toys have been put to use and one wonders what “Austerity” or “Power Game” is anyone talking about.
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Michael Public May 24, 2016

I don't see why the US should be excluded from countries who behave like Game of Thrones characters. The GOP-DEM relationship is also a last man standing one.
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