brexit Justin Tallis/Stringer

La Geografia delle Elezioni

PARIGI – In molti paesi, il luogo in cui si vive tende a fornire una previsione corretta di cosa o chi si intende votare. Questo è stato oltremodo evidente nelle mappe della geografia elettorale del voto per “Leave” e “Remain” nel referendum di giugno del Regno Unito sulla adesione all’Unione Europea. Un modello simile si può riscontrare nella distribuzione dei voti per le elezioni presidenziali degli Stati Uniti del 2012 o nel consenso francese al Fronte Nazionale di Marine Le Pen nelle elezioni regionali del 2015. È molto probabile che sarà riscontrabile nelle prossime elezioni presidenziali degli Stati Uniti. Molti cittadini vivono in luoghi in cui una larga parte dei loro vicini vota nel loro stesso modo.

Questa geografia del voto è indicativa di profonde divisioni economiche, sociali ed educative. Le città ricche, dove si concentrano i laureati, tendono a votare per candidati con visione internazionale, spesso di centro-sinistra, mentre i distretti della piccola borghesia e della classe operaia tendono a votare per candidati contrari agli scambi commerciali, spesso della destra nazionalista. Non è un caso che i sindaci di centro-sinistra governino New York, Londra, Parigi e Berlino, mentre, le città più piccole in difficoltà tendono a preferire i politici di estrema destra.

I modelli di voto regionali o locali sono vecchi come la democrazia. Ciò che è nuovo è una correlazione crescente della polarizzazione spaziale, sociale e politica che sta trasformando i concittadini in semi-estranei. Come Enrico Moretti della University of California di Berkeley ha sottolineato nel suo libro The New Geography of Jobs, la rilevanza di questo nuovo divario è evidente: i laureati rappresentano la metà della popolazione totale delle più ricche aree metropolitane degli Stati Uniti, ma sono quattro volte meno numerosi nelle zone più svantaggiate.

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