brexit Justin Tallis/Stringer

选举地理学

巴黎—在许多国家,你住在哪里往往会成为你如何投票的准确预测指标。英国6月份关于“脱离”还是“留在”欧盟的全民公投最能体现选举地理学的地图。2012年美国总统选举或2015年法国地方选举中对马琳·勒庞(Marine Le Pen)的国民阵线的支持也体现出类似的模式。即将到来的美国总统选举很有可能也是如此。许多人会选择大部分邻居选择的候选人。

这一投票地理学体现出深刻的经济、社会和教育分歧。大学毕业生集中的丰裕城市往往投票给具有国际思维、通常是中左翼的候选人,而中低阶级和工人阶级选区常常投票给往往来自民族主义右翼的反贸易候选人。纽约、伦敦、巴黎和柏林的市长都来自中左翼,而规模较小、情况较困难的城市常常喜欢强硬右派政客,这绝非巧合。

地区或地方选举模式和民主一样古老。新情况是空间、社会和政治极化的相关性日益增加,并且正在让同一国家的公民成为最熟悉的陌生人。加州大学伯克利分校的恩里克·莫雷蒂(Enrico Morette)在《新就业地理学》(The New Geography of Jobs)一书中强调,这一新分歧非常突出:在美国最丰裕的大都会地区,大学毕业生占总人口的一半,但最落后地区的大学毕业生人数要少四倍。

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