Čínský zlý sen

LONDÝN – Od svého loňského prvního projevu ve funkci čínského prezidenta prosazuje Si Ťin-pching takzvaný „čínský sen“ národního oživení a individuálního sebezdokonalení. Nutnost řešit bezprecedentní úroveň dluhu, který Čína v posledních letech nahromadila, je však zkouškou Siova odhodlání – a jeho vláda tápe.

Nejistá schopnost – či ochota – čínské vlády udržet na uzdě dluh je patrná z jejího protichůdného odhodlání zavést významné strukturální reformy a současně udržet roční růst HDP ve výši 7,5%. Vzhledem k tomu, že Čína vděčí za svůj nedávný růst z velké části dluhově financovaným investicím – často do projektů, jako jsou infrastruktura a bydlení, které měly podpořit čínský sen –, jakákoliv snaha získat růst úvěrů pod kontrolu pravděpodobně vyvolá tvrdé přistání. Tato vyhlídka už dnes podněcuje úřady k odkládání klíčových reforem.

Jistě, čínský poměr dluhu k HDP, který tento měsíc dosáhl 250%, zůstává podstatně nižší než ve většině rozvinutých ekonomik. Problém je v tom, že čínské portfolio soukromých úvěrů by bylo za normálních okolností spojováno s HDP na obyvatele ve výši kolem 25 000 dolarů – což je téměř čtyřnásobek současné úrovně v zemi.

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