中国噩梦

伦敦—自习近平于去年开始第一任中国国家主席任期以来,他一直在推行所谓的“中国梦”,即国家复兴和个人的自我改善。但中国面临一个艰巨的挑战——处理近几年来所积累的前所未有的债务负担,这将考验习近平的决心,而他的政府对此视而不见。

中国政府处理债务的能力——或者意愿——存在不确定性,这突出地表现在它的矛盾承诺中——一方面要实施重大结构改革,一方面又要保持7.5%的GDP年增长率。最近,中国的增长很大程度上依靠债务融资的投资——通常是基础设施和住房等项目,旨在支持中国梦——因此任何控制信用增长的努力都有可能导致硬着陆。这种可能性已经导致当局推迟关键改革。

平心而论,中国的债务/GDP比率(本月达到了250%)仍显著低于大部分发达经济体。问题在于中国私人信用存量将因此对应25,000美元左右的人均GDP,几乎达到了现有水平的四倍。

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