自保还是自毁?

发自新德里——虽然美联储对自身货币政策所带来的溢出效应视若无睹,但世界其他国家却对资本回流对新兴市场国家的冲击忧心不已。随着流动性回归发达国家,这些国家近年来积累的外汇储备是否足以维护本国的金融体系?

答案是否定的,因为过度的自我保障最终只会弊大于利。为了破解这个短期资本流动和过度外汇储备累积的不稳定怪圈,国际货币资金组织,在G20集团的广泛支持下,必须制定一系列关于货币政策溢出效应的新规则。

严重的危机都会给一个国家造成难以磨灭的伤痕。在1990年代末,在亚洲肆虐的货币和银行危机令这些国家的领导人得出一个简单的结论:保障这东西总是多多益善的。虽然浮动汇率的引入消除了借入外国货币(以及因此产生的自保需要)的动因,但被迫把部分主权拱手交给国际货币基金组织——即便只是暂时——的政治耻辱感是如此强烈,以致这些领导人认定不管对本国造成了多大损害,都必须积累大笔外汇储备以备下一次危机。但这些国家首脑们却未能预见全部的后果。

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