巴西告急?

圣保罗—在尽力了多年令人瞩目的增长后,巴西经济前景日益暗淡下来。自7月份世界杯结束以来,经济活动大幅下降,通胀压力增加,消费和商业信心崩溃,这导致许多经济学家大幅调低了今年的增长预测。那么,巴西经济局面有多糟糕,如此糟糕的局面又会对10月的总统选举结果造成多大影响?

乍一看,巴西的增长疲软只是暂时的,总统罗塞夫很有机会赢得第二个任期。在过去12个月中,她的工党(Worker’s Party)交出了巴西三十多年来最强劲的人均GDP增长;触及三分之一巴西家庭的广大的社会转移支付体系让收入不平等性有所下降正式失业率也降到创纪录的4.5%。

但你只要略窥最新经济数据就能发现,巴西增长模式很有可能已经撞上了滞涨的南墙。事实上,巴西极有可能在今年上半年经历了技术性衰退。罗塞夫总统任期期间的平均年增长率可能还不到2%——是20世纪80年代巴西开始从超级通胀和连续违约的国家向稳定而日益繁荣的中产阶级经济转变以来诸位总统的最差成绩。

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