Tortugas y gacelas

MÚNICH – La peor crisis financiera mundial de la postguerra ha terminado. Llegó repentinamente en 2008 y, después de aproximadamente 18 meses, se desvaneció casi tan rápido como había surgido. Los paquetes de rescate bancarios por 5 billones de euros y los programas de estímulo keynesianos por otro billón de euros evitaron el colapso. Después de haber disminuido 0,6% en 2009, se prevé que el PIB mundial tenga un crecimiento este año de 4,6%, y de 4,3% para 2011, según las previsiones del Fondo Monetario Internacional –un aumento más rápido que el crecimiento promedio de las tres últimas décadas.

Sin embargo, la crisis de deuda europea continúa, y los mercados no confían del todo en la calma actual. Las primas de riesgo que los países financieramente abatidos tienen que pagar siguen siendo altas y señalan riesgo permanente.

Las primas de las tasas de interés griegas con respecto a las alemanas en lo que se refiere a los bonos del gobierno a diez años se situaron en 8,6% el 20 de agosto, que es incluso más alto que a finales de abril cuando Grecia prácticamente se volvió insolvente y se tomaron medidas de rescate en toda la Unión Europea. Los diferenciales para Irlanda y Portugal también han estado aumentando pese a que a finales de julio parecía que el enorme paquete financiero de 920,000 millones de dólares aportado por la UE, los países de la zona euro, el FMI y el Banco Central Europeo calmaría a los mercados.

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