Gazzelle e tartarughe

MONACO – La peggiore crisi finanziaria del mondo dal dopoguerra è finita. È scoppiata improvvisamente nel 2008, e, dopo circa 18 mesi, è svanita quasi con la stessa rapidità con la quale si è manifestata. I programmi di salvataggio delle banche nell’ordine di 5 trilioni di euro e i programmi di stimolo keynesiani per un ulteriore trilione di euro hanno evitato il collasso. Dopo la contrazione pari allo 0,6% nel 2009, secondo le previsioni del Fondo monetario internazionale si registrerà quest’anno una crescita del Pil mondiale del 4,6%, e del 4,3% nel 2011 – più rapida della crescita media registrata negli ultimi tre decenni.

La crisi del debito europeo, tuttavia, resta, e i mercati non si fidano totalmente della calma apparente. I premi dei rischi, che devono pagare i paesi in difficoltà finanziaria, restano alti e segnalano un rischio permanente.

Il premio dei tassi di interesse greci, rispetto alla Germania, sui bond governativi con scadenza decennale si attestava all’8,6% il 20 agosto, ovvero a un valore persino più alto di quello riscontrato alla fine di aprile, quando la Grecia diventò praticamente insolvente e l’Unione europea si apprestava a preparare le misure di salvataggio. Sono cresciuti anche gli spread per Irlanda e Portogallo, anche se alla fine di luglio sembrava che l’enorme pacchetto di salvataggio da 920 miliardi di euro messo insieme dall’Unione europea, dall’Eurozona, dal FMI e dalla Banca centrale europea avrebbe tranquillizzato i mercati.

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