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MÜNCHEN – Die weltweit schlimmste Wirtschaftskrise der Nachkriegszeit ist vorbei. Sie brach 2008 plötzlich aus und verschwand nach ungefähr 18 Monaten fast genauso schnell, wie sie gekommen war. Bankenrettungsprogramme in Höhe von 5 Billionen Euro und keynesianische Konjunkturprogramme in Höhe von noch einmal 1 Billion Euro haben den Zusammenbruch abgewendet. Nachdem das Welt-BIP 2009 um 0,6 % gefallen war, wird nach den Prognosen des Internationalen Währungsfonds erwartet, dass es in diesem Jahr um 4,6 % und 2011 um 4,3 % steigt – schneller als im Durchschnitt der letzten drei Jahrzehnte.

Die europäische Schuldenkrise bleibt jedoch, und die Märkte trauen dem gegenwärtigen Frieden nicht. Die Zinsaufschläge, die Länder mit Finanzproblemen zahlen müssen, bleiben hoch und signalisieren ein anhaltendes Risiko.

Griechenlands Zinsaufschläge auf zehnjährige Staatsanleihen im Verhältnis zu Deutschland lagen am 20. August bei 8,6 %. Das ist noch höher als Ende April, als Griechenland praktisch pleite war und EU-weite Rettungsmaßnahmen vorbereitet wurden. Die Spreads für Irland und Portugal sind ebenfalls gestiegen, obwohl es Ende Juli so schien, als würde das gigantische Rettungspaket im Umfang von 920 illiarden Euro, das von der EU, den Euroländern, dem IWF und der Europäischen Zentralbank geschnürt worden war, die Märkte beruhigen.

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