Gazely a želvy

MNICHOV – Nejhorší poválečná světová finanční krize skončila. Dostavila se znenadání v roce 2008 a po zhruba 18 měsících zmizela téměř stejně rychle, jako přišla. Programy záchrany bank v řádu 5 bilionů eur a keynesiánské stimulační programy v řádu dalšího bilionu odvrátily kolaps. Podle předpovědí Mezinárodního měnového fondu se očekává, že světové HDP po poklesu o 0,6% v roce 2009 vzroste letos o 4,6% a v roce 2011 o 4,3% – to je více, než činí průměrný růst za poslední tři desetiletí.

Evropská dluhová krize však přetrvává a trhy současnému klidu plně nedůvěřují. Rizikové prémie, které musí platit země ve finanční tísni, zůstávají vysoké a signalizují přetrvávající riziko.

Řecké úrokové prémie u desetiletých vládních dluhopisů činily k 20. srpnu v poměru k Německu 8,6%, což je ještě více než na konci dubna, kdy se Řecko stalo prakticky insolventním a kdy byla připravena záchranná opatření na úrovni celé Evropské unie. Rozpětí se zvyšovala i v případě Irska a Portugalska, ačkoliv se ke konci července zdálo, že gigantický záchranný balík o objemu 920 miliard eur, který dali dohromady EU, členské země eurozóny, MMF a Evropská centrální banka, trhy uklidní.

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