加沙和威慑行动的失败

每日每夜在加沙地带,战略威慑策略——也就是借助人们对超乎寻常的军事力量所支持的惩罚行动的恐惧来阻止军事袭击的策略——都在实施之中。但以色列和加沙好战份子日益升级的暴力曲线不仅表明威慑没有起到预想中的作用,而且表明威慑的有效性要取决于是否遵守道德的基本标准。

某些安全战略家和正义战争理论家指出:只要普通民众的生命与福祉没有受到直接的损害,那么实施威慑策略也就不存在什么道德问题。对于威慑策略的战略有效性给予支持的报复性威慑仍然具有含蓄和假定的性质。但当威慑与集体惩罚无法区分的时候——后者被《日内瓦第四公约》第33条国际法所明令禁止——这种方法就很难达到预期的效果。

以色列从2005年9月单方面撤军到加沙外围地区后,就一直试图阻止巴勒斯坦抵抗运动战士把炸弹投向这一地区。在加沙边境刚刚部署完毕后不久,以色列就严格限制加沙和西岸之间的联系,以及加沙地区进出口货物的流动。当2006年1月支持哈马斯的议会在一场自由公正的选举中顺利当选之后,美国和以色列就领导了一场运动,阻止所有的银行,包括阿拉伯和伊斯兰银行与新政府打交道。

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