La estratagema asiática de Abe

CAMBERRA – Como el mundo está produciendo más hechos históricos de los que la mayoría de nosotros podemos consumir ahora mismo, resulta fácil  perder de vista acontecimientos recientes que podrían tener consecuencias para la paz y la estabilidad a largo plazo mayores incluso que los alarmantes acontecimientos habidos en la Ucrania oriental, en Gaza y en Siria y el Iraq. El resultado de las negociaciones nucleares con el Irán, el cambio de dirigentes en la India y en Indonesia, dos de las tres mayores democracias del mundo, y la revitalización del grupo de los importantes Estados no occidentales BRICS (el Brasil, Rusia, la India, China y Sudáfrica) pueden ser, todos ellos, factores de cambio.

Pero la demostración de fuerza del Japón con el gobierno del Primer Ministro Shinzo Abe puede ser incluso más importante. A no ser que todos los interesados lo controlen cuidadosamente, incluidos los Estados Unidos y otros aliados estrechos del Japón en la región de Asia y el Pacífico, la renovación por parte de Abe de la política exterior japonesa podría socavar los frágiles equilibrios de poder que han frenado hasta ahora la rivalidad chino-americana.

El Japón tiene razón en estar preocupado por la nueva reafirmación regional de China y en ese marco es comprensible el reciente impulso diplomático de Abe para fortalecer las relaciones con el Asia sudoriental y con Australia y la India. Tampoco deja de ser inherentemente razonable –pese a la oposición en su país y en el extranjero– que su gobierno intente reinterpretar el artículo 9 de la “Constitución de Paz” del Japón” para que le permita una mayor participación en las operaciones colectivas de autodefensa y cooperación militar con sus aliados y socios.

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