乌克兰的核幻想

日内瓦——目前普遍的看法是如果冷战结束时乌克兰保留了库存的大批核武器,就不会陷入今天的困境。这种说法的政策暗示非常危险,我们绝不能听之任之。

虽然从表面上看似合理,但这种说法在现有的国家行为证据面前根本经不起推敲。无论是阻止核大国之间爆发战争还是保护弱国免受常规武器袭击,核武器都算不上多数人眼中的有效威慑。

美苏两国间核威慑力量的平衡成功维持了冷战和平、之后又抑制了其他潜在作战(包括印度和巴基斯坦、印度和中国以及中国和美国)的说法远没有乍看上去那样牢不可破。冷战期间没有任何证据表明苏美两国打算发动战争,只是因为顾忌对方的核武器才没有这样做。

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