أوكرانيا والوهم النووي

جنيف ــ تتلخص الحجة المسموعة الآن على نطاق واسع في أن أوكرانيا ما كانت لتواجه الورطة التي تواجهها الآن لو احتفظت بمخزونها الكبير من الأسلحة النووية في نهاية ا لحرب الباردة. والواقع أن هذه الحجة تنطوي على عواقب سياسية خطيرة ولا ينبغي لها أن تمر دون أن نتصدى لتفنيدها.

فبرغم معقولية هذه الحجة سطحيا، فإنها لا تصمد للتدقيق في مواجهة الأدلة المتاحة حول الكيفية التي تتصرف بها الدول. إن الأسلحة النووية ببساطة ليست الرادع الفعّال كما يتصور أغلب الناس، سواء كان السياق حرباً رادعة بين قوى كبرى مسلحة نووياً أو حماية دول أضعف ضد هجوم تقليدي.

والادعاء بأن توازن الرعب النووي بين الولايات المتحدة والاتحاد السوفييتي حافظ على السلام خلال فترة الحرب الباردة ــ وكان مهما منذ ذلك الوقت في تقييد الدول المتحاربة المحتملة (بما في ذلك الهند وباكستان، والهند والصين، والصين والولايات المتحدة) ــ ليس بالقوة التي قد يبدو عليها على الإطلاق. فلا يوجد أي دليل يشير إلى رغبة الاتحاد السوفييتي أو الولايات المتحدة في أي وقت أثناء الحرب الباردة في شن حرب ثم امتنعت عن ذلك فقط بسبب وجود الأسلحة النووية لدى الجانب الآخر.

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