Kazuhiro Nogi/Stringer

Eine Schuldenagenda für die G7

CAMBRIDGE – Am 26. und 27. Mai treffen sich die Staatschefs der sieben führenden Industrieländer in Japan, um über gemeinsame Sicherheits- und Wirtschaftsprobleme zu sprechen. Ein großes Problem, um das sie sich kümmern müssen, ist der starke und nicht nachhaltige Anstieg der Staatsschulden. Kann die Explosion der öffentlichen Kreditaufnahme nicht aufgehalten werden, wird dies negative Einflüsse auf die Weltwirtschaft und auch auf die betroffenen Industrieländer selbst haben.

Das Problem ist erheblich und wird fast überall noch schlimmer. In den Vereinigten Staaten schätzt das Haushaltsbüro des Kongresses, dass sich die Staatsschulden in den letzten zehn Jahren von 36% des BIP auf 74% des BIP verdoppelt haben. Außerdem sagt das Büro voraus, bei günstigen wirtschaftlichen Annahmen und ohne neue Programme zur Ausgabensteigerung oder Einnahmenreduzierung würden die Schulden in zehn Jahren eine Höhe von 86% des BIP erreichen. Noch besorgniserregender ist, dass sich die jährliche Defizitquote im nächsten Jahrzehnt auf 4.9% des BIP verdoppeln wird, was zukünftig eine Verschuldung von über 100% des BIP erwarten lässt.

In Japan ist die Lage bei einer Gesamtverschuldung von über 200% des BIP noch schlimmer. Das momentane jährliche Defizit des Landes von 6% des BIP bedeutet, dass, wenn nichts getan wird, die Verschuldungsquote schnell weiter steigen wird.

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