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Wie sich das Potenzial von Chinas G20-Vorsitz nutzen lässt

NEW YORK – Im Vorfeld des G20-Gipfels in Hangzhou, China, in diesem September ist viel von der Stärkung der globalen makroökonomischen Zusammenarbeit und der Reform des internationalen Währungssystems die Rede. Obwohl dies durchaus nicht das erste Mal ist, dass diese Themen angesprochen wurden – im Jahr 2011 etwa drängte Frankreich auf geldpolitische Reformen, wurde dann jedoch durch die Krise in der Eurozone aufgehalten –, ist die Zeit diesmal möglicherweise reif für echte Fortschritte.

Die heutige Weltwirtschaft leidet unter der Unsicherheit. Widersprüchliche Daten haben jüngst Fragen über die Stärke der US-Konjunktur aufgeworfen. Was Japan angeht, sind die Daten sogar noch unbeständiger. Die Europäische Union erlebt nicht nur eine nach wie vor schwache Erholung, sondern zugleich die Möglichkeit, das Vereinigte Königreich als Mitglied zu verlieren.

Die Schwellenländer durchleben derweil einen steilen wirtschaftlichen Abschwung. China im Besonderen stellt ein erhebliches Risiko dar, und viele befürchten, dass der Abschwung im Lande ernster ausfallen wird als ursprünglich erwartet. Dies hat viele dazu geführt, ihr Kapital außer Landes zu schaffen, was einen starken Abwärtsdruck auf den Renminbi erzeugt.

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