Comments 12

从现在开始防止下一场欧元区危机

Dec 1, 2016 Jean Pisani-Ferry

巴黎—自2012年7月欧洲央行行长德拉吉发出著名的声音，承诺“不惜一切代价”拯救共同货币以来，欧洲领导人便不再关注欧元区的未来。四年多来，他们事实上已将欧元区的稳定和完整转包给了央行行长。但是，尽管欧洲央行表现出了极强的工作能力，其悄然进行的便利安排已经行将结束，因为任何央行都无法解决政治或宪法难题。欧洲各国首脑和政府明智的话应该开始考虑欧元区的未来选择，而不是让环境来替他们做决定。

目前，欧洲领导人对讨论这一问题毫无兴趣。2015年6月，他们只是由各大欧洲机构首脑动动嘴皮子就欧元的未来作了一番报告。几周后，这一问题短暂地回到了议程中——欧元区领导人在7月末花了长长一个晚上讨论是否要将希腊踢出欧元区；但他们只是短暂地公开表示要跟进并解决基本问题。最后，通过强化欧元区来应对英国退欧冲击的响应计划很快也被放弃，因为他们担心改革具有太多的分歧性。

但是，问题从未消失。尽管欧洲央行的货币麻药缓和了市场的紧张，但随着12月4日意大利修宪公投的临近，紧张情绪再次高涨起来。截至11月底，意大利和德国十年期国债利差达到了200个基点，为2014年以来的最高水平。

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Christine Constable Dec 12, 2016

Jean, it is a relief to see someone who is also clearly on the fringes of the Elite accept that the EU as constituted is not working. I fear that most of those in Brussels, particularly those who are nursing their pensions and political futures have totally misunderstood the cri dcouer from the UK which manifested in the form of Brexit.

Do you imagine for a moment, that a country like the UK who has invested billions of our treasure in this project and 40 years of our trading lives wanted to see this situation end in chaos. The shocking speed with which the 27 "dropped" the UK like a bad smell, ignoring the vast amount of support it has already contributed to the project has been very damaging to the British psyche, and your article which just talks about how you can kick over the embers to make the future of the EU secure misses the point completely.

Had it not been for the negative and antagonistic attitude of characters such as Barnier; Tusk; Junker and Schultz you could be looking at a full blown summit in December of all 28 looking at a way to recast Europe to better meet the needs of its citizens. Rather than that we are in a situation where recriminations; punishment and revenge seem to be the only thing on the lips of the nasty cabal now shepherding the EU over the cliff.

What happened to vision and new ideas? What happened to responding to the democratic will? What happened to wanting to re-imagine a project which has promise but lacks leadership and democracy?

Once I was a supporter of the EU and then through many "sneeky" Treaties what was a great idea became a very bad idea, as the involvement and consent of the people was increasingly undermined and in the end ignored. That is the process of an unaccountable autocratic monolith, the same that have plagued the world from time in memorial.

Why we cannot move beyond this type of government is very sad, and demonstrates an inability to re-imagine a different way.

Without the consent of the populus the project is dead; without the affection of the populus there is no future. What is currently being done to the Uk will sew the seeds of Europe's faster demise.

If only the EU had accepted that with such a close vote in the Uk, with some significant alterations the UK could have been kept on board - but no, the EU determined to exercised the power it has no consent to exercise; ploughs on spitting bile and antagonising the British because it had the temerity to flag up the serious failures in the EU structure.

France also has to get over itself. Its socialist nirvana which is not only failing but requires the input of Britain to keep afloat needs to drop the negative rhetoric, get a premier who can see the wood for the trees and start negotiating seriously as to how we can make Europe work for everyone and persuade the UK to re-engage by offering her a deal she can live with and in so doing restoring the faith in the EU across the bloc.

Don't underestimate the negative influence the UK can bring to bear on an EU that tries to isolate Britain, we have many friends in Europe and across the world - we are a decent sensible influential country - if we are angry and upset it is for good reason. The British (unlike the French) don't go on strike and revolt at the drop of a hat, it takes years of frustration and lack of progress for us to snap and we waited 40 years to tell the EU it was not up to the job.

If you have any influence with France Strategie - can I suggest you get rid of Barnier as the "negotiator" and talk directly with the Prime Minister and others at the highest levels to come together to save the EU from itself, isolating and alienating the British at summits is not the way forward, in fact this will guarantee a disastrous end game. What is now needed are cool heads; intellectual rigour and first class leadership. Let's all start earning our money!
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Gerald Silverberg Dec 11, 2016

"Distributing a burden between creditors and debtors is inevitably acrimonious, because it is a purely zero-sum game."

Not true. Delaying debt restructuring can be a negative-sum game for both creditors and debtors, as is well-known in the literature. Conversely, timely debt restructuring can be a positive-sum game compared to any realistic alternatives if debt is unsustainable, even it represents a loss to creditors in terms of par values.
The sooner debtors and especially creditors recognize this fact, the better for everyone, even if there remains a genuine moral hazard issue. That's why we have bankruptcy laws today instead of debtors prisons.
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Peter Schneider Dec 2, 2016

You cannot write that "the eurozone still lacks a common fiscal mechanism" when such a mechanism is explicitely forbidden by law (TFEU art. 123, German constitution) and absolutely rejected by the majority of the German people. You also cannot write that "banking union is not complete" when common deposit insurance is forbidden by law (TFEU art. 123, German constitution) and absolutely rejected by the majority of the German people. You cannot bemoan that "saving flows from North to South have not resumed" when the billions from the past were obviously not used for competetive improvements (education, research and development etc.) that would enable to repay debt but for dolce vita (wages above productivity levels, real estate bubbles etc.).

There seems to be a widespread assumption that the law or the constitution or the will of the German people could be simply wiped away. There seems to be a widespread assumption that Germany will pay in the end (l'Allemagne paiéra) and that Germany has to pay - even if the majority of Germans is against it. There seems to be the assumption that the German people should not have the right to decide on their budget, on their economical, financial or monetary politics on their own but that foreign institutions should have the right to decide on German politics and the right to transfer wealth out of Germany without approval by the German parliament.

Very obviously, the whole projects relies on a condition that is not given, namely the readiness of the North to permanently subsidize the South. The assumption that saving flows from North to South are naturally given is simply wrong. If an open discussion was allowed, this would become clear very quickly. Unfortunatedly (or rather: Therefore), an open discussion is not allowed. But when the open discussion still was allowed, i.e. before 2000, the will of the German people to exclude a transfer union was clear and the Maastricht treaty gives testimony of it. This will is unchanged, it is well justified and legitimate.

Future generations of historians will have to find out why the project was started when fundamental conditions were not given and who betrayed whom. In the end, all people were betrayed - not only the Germans, also the Greeks and the Italians. It was a betrayal of the European idea in total. And not only the financial costs are astronomic, also the credibility of state institutions and, in the end, the credibility of the constitution were severely damaged - if not destroyed - and when institutions are not trusted anymore then it is a systemic crisis.

Any future "blueprint" must therefore have the sovereignty of the people as starting point, there can be no compromise on that. As a consequence, to enforce the sovereignty of the people, the rule of law has to be strictly abided. There can be no institution operating outside the rule of law. If the enforcement of the rule of law (which guarantees the enforcement of the sovereignty of the people) triggers a financial crisis - then this is an indication that the whole system is fundamentally flawed because if the rule of law can no longer be enforced then the sovereignty of the people can no longer be enforced. Expression of the sovereignty of the people will again have to be the democratically legitimated parliaments with full power of decision making thus guaranteing the national right of self determination. Expression of the sovereignty of the people will also have to be again the national control over national borders (otherwise we simply have no control over our borders).
- Jonas Almeida Dec 14, 2016
  
  You are of course right Rajendran, pro-EU politicians in countries like Portugal, where I come from, are much more comfortable living of hand outs than in guiding their people's preference for self-determination and a sustainable economy. It is not a coincidence that they are absolutely against referenda. The polls show (quoting main Pt newspaper) that public sentiment against UE has now exceeded "Brexit levels".
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- Rajendran Vasudevan Dec 8, 2016
  
  You guys want to have the cake and eat it too! In the presence of a strong nationalistic fervour a united Europe is a chimera and any further effort is a total waste.
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- Jose araujo Dec 5, 2016
  
  German law will change once the Deutsche Bank is in bankruptcy and needs bailing..
  
  I think the other European countries should have in their constitution a law forbidding to bail Germany once again…
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- Steve Hurst Dec 4, 2016
  
  @Peter
  
  Peter you have joined a financial swingers club and must expect the odd rash outcome. I dont understand at all why you joined a financial swingers club; its all Greek to me - but what exactly did you think you were joining when you totally and utterly gave up control of your currency to other club members who had a totally different view of money and its use
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- jagjeet sinha Dec 3, 2016
  
  @Peter
  Without a Transfer Union - Investment Equalization - the North cannot permanently subsidize the South.
  Unlimited Migration then is the only guaranteed outcome - perhaps best facilitated by One Language.
  Peace n Prosperity in Europe 1945-2015 has been predicated on NATO - not European Union.
  NATO does not require dissolution of Sovereignty.
  Perhaps the template then is the European Economic Community - that best complemented NATO.
  EEC - Collective Economics without dissolution of Sovereignty.
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Jose araujo Dec 2, 2016

EU meetings are like ostrich reunions, so we all know what’s going to happen.

Now on your claim that that “Distributing a burden between creditors and debtors is inevitably acrimonious, because it is a purely zero-sum game”, you and the ones who think like you couldn’t be more wrong.

It’s not a zero sum game when much of the value created from the financial system comes from externalities, so it’s a win-win/lose-lose situation so it couldn’t be further away from a win-lose, zero sum game situation.

It’s a very hard concept to grasp for small-minded, black or white, ostrich people. We have fiat money for centuries and still most of the people and many economists don’t even understand how it works.
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dan baur Dec 2, 2016

Straight from the old Pravda - words without meaning:

"Participants should explore logically coherent options until they determine if they can agree on a blueprint. It is only when agreement on a blueprint for the future has been reached that the path toward realizing it should be discussed"
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Peter Lintner Dec 2, 2016

Eurozone is an unworkable, utopian dream, or nightmare, and the only possible outcome of the rising tensions within is breakup. European politicians have two choices. Either they continue to kick the can down the road and let the market tear eurozone apart in catastrophic collapse or they start behaving responsible and prepare a velvet divorce.

Of course, no one should hold his breath, with careerist, incompetent and clueless "politicians" like Merkel, Juncker, Renzi etc the only realistic outcome is a total collapse. European history repeating itself again. Wash, rinse, repeat ...
- Jonas Almeida Dec 14, 2016
  
  Staying a course that worsens all the time can indeed only end in chaos. You are of course right, a controlled break up is the logical solution. I've immigrated to the USA from Portugal and I can assure you I'm not the only immigrant ready to fund and participate in the liberation of the motherland if it comes to that. The judicious among you should know that time for a clean break will not last forever. Not even I want people like me to ever be the best of two evils.
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- Jose araujo Dec 5, 2016
  
  @ Steve, so many decisions in our life are lose-lose, and unfortunatly nowadays, breaking up the EU is the worst decision...
  
  I know this is being used by the Eurocracy and the Prussians to push their agenda, but with Trump in on side and Farage on the other, the conditions for an EU brake-up are not met.
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- Steve Hurst Dec 4, 2016
  
  @Jose
  
  If the members of the EU do not share common objectives there is no union other than in name. The three key measures of any relationship are - trust, mutual benefit and shared objectives. These are questionable at present. it is obvious that some accession states have simply increased the disorder economically or politically that was already present in the EU. Additionally the death machine that the euro is will lever other resident effects and has started that already
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- Jose araujo Dec 2, 2016
  
  Although I agree with you, the world right now cannot afford a EU break-up.
  
  Chaos is not a good thing, specially in Europe
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Steve Hurst Dec 2, 2016

This is not about Germany leading anything, it is about leadership failure in other EZ countries. Not that Germany can claim much leadership

German reserves have been levered by the structural imbalances central to the EZ but German alarm at the zombi zone army approaching the counting house is understandable. German assets divided up between all the zombis will evaporate in the midday Sun
- Steve Hurst Dec 4, 2016
  
  @Jose
  
  You will get an EZ breakdown. It is when not if
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- Jose araujo Dec 2, 2016
  
  Steve, Germany refusal for any compromise is breaking up Europe. Until last year I was all up for an EU break, but nowadays it would mean chaos, and you know what chaos is like in Europe.
  
  I’m not very optimistic, since Prussians never did the right thing, so I’m expecting increasing rigidity and extremism from Eastern Europe. History does tend to repeat itself….
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Ariel Tejera Dec 2, 2016

These last 70 years, Germany has assumed the roles that the other Western powers gave it: develop economically, challenge the Russians, don't build Nukes, integrate with the rest of Europe, plan to stay integrated forever, absorb Eastern Germany, then the whole of Eastern Europe, etc.
It seems that all this won't prevent Germany from presiding on yet another European debacle ... but now of a different style.
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Andrew Cole Dec 1, 2016

I agree with John Below. German internal deflation policy has devastated southern Europe, causing mass migration, and possibly Brexit as a result. By deflating demand it does not really benefit Germany in economic terms. All that is left to explain this behaviour is a mix of greed and Sado-Supremacism, to dominate Europe and take pleasure in others imposed misfortune. The situation cannot be remedied without removing Germany from a position of complete political dominance in the EU and that requires Southern Europe to develop coordination and backbone, and try to peel France away from Germany - and for that matter a complete clean out of the EU presidents. Its also interesting to note that the real reason for being harsh on a UK, which is suffering from an immense population crisis, is that freedom of movement is the only safety valve left for the adverse consequences of German policy on southern Europe - the whole thing is about greed.
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john parris Dec 1, 2016

Do something about Germany's obsessive need to wrack up payments surpluses. This is the driver that is killing the Eurozone. No one is taking them to task for excessive payments imbalances and Germans are rather proud of it. For the rest of the Eurozone it is the elephant in the room. If this can't be re-balanced then Germany should leave the Eurozone. Actually the Eurozone is not doing Germany much good. In the short term If it all goes bump they'll be left with a pile of Target 2's not worth the Bytes they are stored on. In the longer term it is corroding their competitiveness. They do not need to work at competing as the Euro Exchange rate does it all for them.
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Bernhard Kopp Dec 1, 2016

The crisis has been continuing for years, just temporarily at a slightly lower temperature. At best, the boiling over could be prevented, but even that is unlikely. The unfortunate and inconvenient truth is, that the political elites of Europe have not noticeably tried to organize the EU and the Euro better, in a much more functional and stable architecture. The Euro is only kept alive with the QE from the EZB, and all of it. The EU is constitutionally and institutionally so hopelessly dysfunctional, that with the present structures and procedures it can only go one way - decline. As a response to this dysfunctionalty we have Brexit and national assertivness in many countries. There is little love left. Without decisive leadership, from whomever, there is no hope that of reversal of this erosion.
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M M Dec 1, 2016

It is too little, too late.....Too many generations have been left in the wilderness for far too long, they have come back not to bite.... but to devore.. Politicians and Advisers (so -called Experts) brace yourselves for more of the unpleasant and of the "unexpected"..
- M M Dec 1, 2016
  
  A word of advice to the Central Bankers, either you get on with doing a constructive work that you are being paid to do or just resign. You are not politicians neither are you expected to perform the role of a politician.
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从现在开始防止下一场欧元区危机

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