Euro coins

负利率俱乐部

布鲁塞尔—在最近十年的大部分时间里,中央银行在遏制强大的全球通缩力量方面只取得了有限的进展。2008年以来,美联储将利率维持在零水平,同时还通过大规模债券购买操作进行了多次前所未有的资产负债表扩张。英格兰银行、日本银行和欧洲央行也纷纷步美联储后尘,都实施了各自版本的所谓“量化宽松”(QE)。但通货膨胀在任何地方都没获得合理的提升。

尽管这些国家都在与通缩压力作斗争,但它们的货币政策——以及经济表现——正在分化。美国和英国现在的增长足够强势,已经可以退出扩张性政策并提高利率,而欧元区和日本正在加码QE,将政策长期利率进一步推向负区间。这一区别的原因何在?

简短地回答是债务。几十年来,美国和英国一直有经常项目赤字,因此是债务国,而欧元区和日本一直有外部盈余,因此是债权国。负利率有利于债务国而不利于债权国,因此全球经济危机之后所引入的负利率刺激了美国和英国的复苏,但对于欧元区和日本基本上没有什么效果。

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