全球资本涌向前沿市场

普林斯顿—所谓的“前沿市场经济”已成为投资圈的新宠。尽管这些低收入国家——包括亚洲的孟加拉国和越南、拉丁美洲的洪都拉斯和玻利维亚以及非洲的肯尼亚和加纳——规模小、金融市场不发达,但它们增长很快,并且预计将成为未来新兴经济体。在过去四年中,流入前沿经济体的私人资本比新兴经济体高50%(相对GDP而言)。这是好事还是坏事已成为经济分析家和决策者罗莎测试(Rorschach test)。

现在我们知道,资本自由流动的承诺并未减弱。目前,资本流入的大增刺激了流入国的消费而非投资,放大了经济波动,也导致痛苦的金融危机变得更加频繁。全球金融市场并未带来纪律,而是让负债变得更加容易,从而减弱了挥霍政府的预算约束,也导致银行资产负债表过度膨胀。

资本自由流动的最大理由仍然是近二十年前由时任国际货币基金组织(IMF)二号人物、现美联储副主席斯坦利·费希尔(Stanley Fischer)所提出的。尽管费希尔认识到自有资本流动的弊端,但他认为解决办法不是维持资本管制,而是采取降低风险所需的改革。

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