Paul Lachine

Du chagrin au gain sur la frontière de l'UE

BRUXELLES - Le premier acte du drame de la dette de la zone euro a été de savoir si un pays membre de l'Union européenne pourrait devenir insolvable. Il a pris fin lorsque la plus haute autorité de l'UE, le Conseil européen, a officiellement reconnu, fin juillet, que la Grèce n'avait pas besoin d'une réduction de sa dette.

Mais la reconnaissance de la réalité ne met pas fin au drame. Le deuxième acte traitera de la restauration de perspectives de phase d'expansion pour la périphérie de l'UE, ce qui lancera un défi encore plus difficile.

Le problème clé est simple : jusqu'en 2008, ces pays ont connu une longue phase d'expansion, fondée sur un crédit à bon marché et abondant, ce qui leur a permis de financer d'importants déficits de leurs comptes courants. Mais toute croissance des importations crée une impression trompeuse quant à la capacité de production de l'économie locale.

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