From Great Game to Grand Bargain

LAHORE – El “Gran Juego” ya no es divertido. Los imperialistas del siglo diecinueve usaron ese término para describir la lucha entre los británicos y los rusos por el dominio de Afganistán y Asia Central. Más de un siglo después el juego continúa, pero ahora la cantidad de jugadores ha aumentado radicalmente, quienes viven en el tablero se han convertido en jugadores, y la intensidad de la violencia y las amenazas que representa afectan al resto del mundo.

Afganistán ha estado en guerra por tres décadas, y la guerra se está extendiendo a Pakistán y otros países. Es necesario llamar a un tiempo de descanso para que los jugadores, incluido el Presidente electo Barack Obama, puedan negociar un nuevo trato para la región.

Para garantizar la seguridad de Afganistán y su región se necesitará una presencia internacional por muchos años. Acrecentar las fuerzas de seguridad de Afganistán es, en el mejor de los casos, una medida supletoria, ya que el país no puede sostener fuerzas del tamaño que hoy necesita. Sólo un acuerdo regional y global para poner la estabilidad de Afganistán por sobre otros objetivos puede hacer posible la estabilidad de largo plazo, permitiendo que el país sobreviva con las fuerzas de seguridad que se puede permitir. Sin embargo, ese acuerdo requerirá iniciativas políticas y diplomáticas tanto dentro como fuera de Afganistán.

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