从大博弈到大协定

拉合尔-“伟大的博弈”不再好玩了。十九世纪的英帝国主义用这个词来形容英国与俄罗斯为掌控阿富汗和中亚地区而进行的争斗。一个多世纪后,博弈继续进行着。但现在,博弈的人数大大增加了,棋子成了棋手,其产生的暴力和威胁的强度影响到整个地球。

阿富汗处于战争状态已有三十年了,而且战争正在向巴基斯坦和更远处蔓延。战争需要被喊停;这样,包括当选总统奥巴马在内的参与方,可以为此地区进行谈判以达成一项新的协定。

确保阿富汗和该地区的安全将需要多年的国际力量的存在。建立阿富汗的安全部队至多只是一种应急措施,因为该国将没法维持它目前需要的军队的规模。只有一个区域性和全球性的将阿富汗的稳定置于高于其他目标之上的协议,才能使长期稳定成为可能,使阿富汗以它能负担得起的安全军队而生存下去。但这需要阿富汗国内和国外的政治和外交举措。

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