Von globalen Ungleichgewichten zu wirksamen weltweiten Regeln

STANFORD, KALIFORNIEN – Die aktuelle Kreditkrise hat auf der ganzen Welt einer Senkung der Wachstumsprognosen geführt. Regierungen und Zentralbanken reagieren auf schlechte Bilanzen und die Austrocknung am Kreditsektor, um schwere Schäden außerhalb des Finanzsektors in ihren jeweiligen Ökonomien zu begrenzen.

Der amerikanische Finanzsektor unterliegt momentan einem überaus raschen Strukturwandel, dessen Auswirkungen das Wirtschaftswachstum der Entwicklungsländer schwer treffen könnten. Diese Länder erleben ohnehin schon einen starken Anstieg der relativen Preise von Nahrungsmitteln und Öl, eine akute Nahrungsmittelkrise bei den Armen und höhere Inflationsraten aufgrund von Preisschwankungen bei Rohstoffen. Obwohl das rasche Wachstum der Entwicklungsländer ein wichtiger Faktor für den Anstieg der Rohstoffpreise war, entziehen sich große Teile dieser Entwicklung deren Kontrolle.

In den letzten zwei Jahren haben meine Kollegen in der Wachstums- und Entwicklungskommission und ich versucht herauszufinden, wie des 13 Entwicklungsländern gelungen ist, eine Wachstumsrate von durchschnittlich 7 Prozent über 25 Jahre oder länger aufrechtzuerhalten. In dem im Mai dieses Jahres veröffentlichten Wachstumsbericht , versuchten wir darzulegen, warum die meisten Entwicklungsländer diese Vorgaben bei weitem nicht erreichen konnten. Darüber hinaus untersuchten wir Möglichkeiten, wie sie den Anschluss an schnell wachsende Ökonomien finden könnten.

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