Remplacer les déséquilibres mondiaux par une gouvernance globale réelle

STANFORD, CALIFORNIE – La crise actuelle du crédit a conduit à revoir à la baisse les perspectives de croissance mondiale. Les gouvernements et les banques centrales réagissent aux bilans déficitaires et à la contraction du crédit pour tenter de limiter la débâcle de leurs économies, au-delà du secteur financier.

Aux Etats-Unis, le secteur financier traverse une période de transformation structurelle rapide et permanente, dont les conséquences pourraient être graves pour la croissance économique des pays en développement. En effet, ces pays connaissent déjà une importante augmentation relative du prix des aliments et du carburant, qui se traduit par une situation de crise alimentaire pour les pauvres et par des taux d’inflation plus élevés en raison de l’augmentation du prix des denrées de base. Bien que la croissance rapide des pays en développement soit un facteur important de l’accroissement du prix des matières premières, une grande partie de cette évolution échappe à leur contrôle.

Ces deux dernières années, mes collègues et moi-même de la Commission sur la croissance et le développement avons cherché à comprendre comment 13 pays en développement ont réussi à maintenir des taux de croissance tournant autour de 7 pour cent ou plus par an pendant les 25 dernières années. Dans le Rapport sur la croissance, publié en mai, nous avons cherché à démontrer la raison pour laquelle la plupart des pays en développement n’atteignent pas ces taux et à envisager de quelle manière ils pourraient s’inspirer des pays à croissance rapide.

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