От экономического к демократическому кризису в Азии

ДЖАКАРТА: В юго-восточной Азии политический кризис пришел на смену финансовому. Президент Филиппин Естрада, который никогда не мог справиться со своим офисом, был смещен в результате бескровного переворота при поддержке толпы. Теперь Президента Индонезии Вахид возможно ожидает импичмент; то же самое можно сказать и о президенте Тайваня. Новый Премьер-министр Тайланда пришел к власти со скандалом, политика Малазии кажется еще более нестабильной чем за все последние двадцать лет.

Бум юговосточной Азии закончился годы назад, но нельзя сказать что былое процветание ушло бесследно, поскольку причины нестабильности очевидны. Сегодняшняя политическая турбуленция, на самом деле, произросла из тех же корней, что и вчерашние финансовые бури – неадекватные, слабые и несформировавшиеся институты. До тех пор, пока эти институционные проблемы не будут решены, сообщества Азии не смогут вернуться на прежний путь процветания.

Конечно, финансы и демократия – не близнецы-братья. Но определенное сходство существует – без контр-проверки и контроля серьезных внутренних институтов, глобальные крылья политической либерализации выбивают из колеи бывшие авторитарные режимы, почти так же, как экономическая глобализация приносит хаос слабым финасовым институтам. Из экономического кризиса в Азии в 1997-98 гг. можно извлечь урок для сегодняшней политической неразберихи.

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