¿De debacle financiera a depresión global?

NUEVA YORK - El sistema financiero internacional se encamina a la debacle. Las bolsas de valores han estado cayendo la mayoría de los días, los mercados monetarios y los mercados del crédito se encuentran cerrados, ya que los diferenciales de sus tipos de interés se han ido a las nubes, y aún es demasiado temprano para decir si la serie de medidas adoptadas por Estados Unidos y Europa frenará la caída de manera permanente.

Una corrida generalizada en el sistema bancario ha sido fuente de temores por primera vez en siete décadas, mientras que el sistema bancario en las sombras –corredores de bolsa, entidades no bancarias que hacen préstamos hipotecarios, vehículos y medios de inversión estructurada, fondos de cobertura, fondos de mercados de dinero y firmas de capitales privados- están en riesgo de una corrida sobre sus pasivos de corto plazo.

Del lado de la economía real, todas las economías avanzadas, que representan el 55% del PGB global, entraron en recesión incluso antes de los shocks financieros que comenzaron el verano último. Así es que ahora tenemos recesión, una grave crisis financiera y una grave crisis bancaria en las economías avanzadas.

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