De la crise financière à la crise de la dette ?

CAMBRIDGE, E.-U. – Que se soit la reine d’Angleterre ou l’ouvrier automobile licencié de Détroit, tout le monde veut savoir comment il est possible que plus d’experts n’aient pas pressenti la crise financière. C’est une question bizarre. Comment se peut-il que les spécialistes puissent affirmer que les catastrophes financières ne se renouvelleront pas alors qu’ils sont incapables de prévoir leur première occurrence ?

La réponse n’est pas très rassurante. Mais pour faire simple, disons qu’il y a toujours un risque que la crise financière soit juste en phase d’hibernation, phase pendant laquelle elle se métamorphose lentement en crise de la dette publique.

Pour le meilleur ou pour le pire, la raison pour laquelle la plupart des investisseurs sont aujourd’hui beaucoup plus confiants qu’ils ne l’étaient il y a encore quelques mois est que les gouvernements un peu partout dans le monde ont mis en place un vaste filet de sécurité sous le système financier. Ils ont par ailleurs soutenu les économies en créant d’énormes déficits pendant que les banques centrales ont baissé presque à zéro les taux d’intérêts.

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