Проблемы Америки с Китаем

ВАШИНГТОН, округ Колумбия. Си Цзиньпин, новый председатель Китая, совершил свой первый визит в Соединенные Штаты в мае 1980 года. Он был 27-летним младшим офицером сопровождения Гэн Бяо, в то время вице-премьера и ведущего военного чиновника в Китае. Гэн принимал меня в январе того же года, когда я был первым министром обороны США, посетившим Китай, действуя в качестве посредника администрации президента Джимми Картера.

У американцев тогда было мало оснований для того, чтобы заметить тогда Си, но его начальство ясно видело его потенциал. В последующие 32 лет положение Си выросло наряду с экономической и военной мощью Китая. Восхождение его когорты к вершине власти знаменует выход на пенсию последнего поколения лидеров, назначенных Дэн Сяопином (хотя они сохраняют свое влияние).

Несмотря на большой вес Китая в мировых делах, Си сталкивается с внутренним напряжением, которое делает Китай более хрупким, чем мы привыкли его считать. Экспортно-ориентированная модель экономики Китая достигла своего предела, и переход к росту, движимому внутренним потреблением, активизирует внутренние трения. Устранять беспорядки путем репрессий сегодня сложнее, чем в прошлом, по мере того как быстрая урбанизация, экономические реформы и социальные изменения проходят в стране с населением 1,3 миллиарда человек. Этнические конфликты в отдаленных регионах также будут испытанием политического контроля Си.

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