De la insolvencia en carbono a los dividendos del clima

BERLÍN – La limitación del calentamiento planetario a 2ºC por encima de los niveles preindustriales es absolutamente decisiva, según dicen el G-8 y la mayoría de los mejores meteorólogos del mundo. Si no se trata de simples opiniones de boquilla, las consecuencias serán radicales.

Para empezar, hasta 2050 sólo se podrá emitir a la atmósfera un total de unas 700 gigatoneladas de dióxido de carbono. Al ritmo actual de emisiones, ese “presupuesto” se agotará en 20 años; si las emisiones aumentan como se espera, el mundo llegará a ser antes incluso “insolvente” en carbono. Por eso, la reducción del CO2 y otros gases que producen el efecto de invernadero deberá comenzar lo antes posible. Perder más tiempo hará que los costos se pongan por las nubes y vuelvan obsoleto el límite de 2ºC.

El Norte rico no puede seguir como antes, los países industriales en ascenso deben abandonar la antigua vía a la prosperidad basada en la industria y el resto del mundo tal vez ni siquiera pueda internarse por ella. Sin embargo, las negociaciones sobre los límites de emisiones con cada uno de los 192 países signatarios en el período anterior a la Cumbre de Copenhague, que se celebrará en diciembre de 2009, no han dado indicios hasta ahora de que vaya a haber un cambio tan radical.

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