从碳破产到气候红利

柏林——将全球变暖限制在高于工业化之前2°C的水平是绝对必要的,八国集团和绝大多数世界最出色的气候学家一直这样说。如果上述要求真的要执行下去,后果将会非常极端。

起始阶段,到2050年,总共只允许向空气中排放约7000亿吨二氧化碳。按照目前的排放速度,上述“预算”只能支撑20年。如果排放按照预料中的速度增加,世界将会更早地陷入碳“破产”。因此必须尽早降低二氧化碳和温室气体的排放。进一步浪费时间会导致成本大幅上涨,致使2°C的最高限度成为空谈。

富有的北方国家必须改弦更张,新兴工业化国家必须摒弃依托工业化走向繁荣的老路,而世界其他国家甚至不能开始工业化的进程。但是在筹备2009年12月召开的哥本哈根峰会过程中与192个缔约国就排放问题的谈判到目前为止还没有迹象显示能带来如此巨大的改变。

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