Paul Lachine

弗里德曼完善凯恩斯

上个世纪最著名、影响最大的美国经济学家于11月去世。米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)并不是世界最著名,影响最大的经济学家¾这一殊荣是属于约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)的。但米尔顿·弗里德曼仅次于凯恩斯而位列次席。

从某种角度看,米尔顿·弗里德曼是凯恩斯的得意门生、也是凯恩斯事业的继承人和发展者。在著作《就业、利息和货币通论》中,凯恩斯构架了被今天几乎所有宏观经济学家所采用的理论框架。这一框架的基础是需求和消费,包括消费的决定因素,短期利率流动性偏好理论和政府以强有力的战略干预保持经济平稳发展,避免萧条和过剩的等极端情况出现。正如弗里德曼自己所说,“我们都是凯恩斯主义者。”

但凯恩斯的理论还不完善:它涉及了就业、利息和货币,却没有涉及到价格问题。弗里德曼为凯恩斯的框架补充了价格和通胀理论,这一理论的基础是自然失业率和政策在稳定长期经济发展方面的有限作用¾如果这种局限被打破,政策干预就很可能引发失控的破坏性通胀。

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