France and EU Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images

L’élection française et l’avenir de l’Europe

BERLIN – Beaucoup de choses peuvent encore se produire d’ici le second tour de l’élection présidentielle française du 7 mai, et il est donc trop tôt pour crier victoire. Pour autant, à l’heure où la candidate populiste et nationaliste Marine Le Pen demeure en course, de nombreux observateurs sont véritablement confiants dans l’idée que le vainqueur du premier tour, Emmanuel Macron, sera le prochain président de la République française.

Une victoire de Macron éviterait à l’Europe un nouvel épisode d’autodestruction. Par opposition, une présidence Le Pen conduirait quasi-certainement à la fin de l’Union européenne. La sortie de la France hors de la zone euro, promise par Le Pen, aboutirait à l’effondrement de l’euro lui-même. Par la suite, marché unique de l’UE et autres institutions clés tomberaient les uns après les autres tels des dominos. L’Europe plongerait dans les abysses, tandis que nous perdrions 60 années de progrès politique, économique et social.

Marine Le Pen entend par ailleurs désengager la France de l’OTAN, et nouer des relations de plus grande proximité avec la Russie de Vladimir Poutine. Une telle évolution perturberait considérablement les accords de sécurité actuellement appliqués en Europe, ce qui risquerait de provoquer une panique chez les investisseurs, et de plonger le continent dans une crise économique. Les éventuelles conséquences politiques sont à peine imaginables.

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