France and EU Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images

De Franse verkiezingen en de toekomst van Europa

BERLIN – Er kan nog veel gebeuren tussen nu en de tweede ronde van de Franse presidentsverkiezingen op zondag 7 mei, dus het is nog te vroeg om feest te vieren. Maar ook al is de nationalistische, populistische kandidaat Marine Le Pen nog steeds in de running, veel waarnemers zijn oprecht hoopvol dat de winnaar van de eerste ronde, Emmanuel Macron, de volgende president van Frankrijk zal zijn.

Met de overwinning van Macron zou Europa vermijden zichzelf opnieuw op te blazen. Een president Le Pen zou vrijwel zeker het einde van de Europese Unie inluiden. Het uit de eurozone halen van Frankrijk, zoals Le Pen heeft beloofd, zou leiden tot de instorting van de euro zelf. Daarna zouden de gemeenschappelijke markt van de EU en andere kerninstituties omvallen als dominostenen. Europa zou in de afgrond tuimelen, en zestig jaar van politieke, economische en sociale vooruitgang zouden verloren gaan.

Bovendien wil Le Pen Frankrijk terugtrekken uit de NAVO en vriendelijker betrekkingen nastreven met het Rusland van Vladimir Poetin. Dit zou de huidige veiligheidsregelingen in Europa in chaos storten, vrij waarschijnlijk paniek onder beleggers teweegbrengen en het continent in een economische crisis terecht doen komen. De politieke gevolgen zijn nauwelijks voorspelbaar.

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