El tercer hombre de Francia

¿Deberíamos observar la campaña presidencial francesa con admiración, o alarma? ¿O tal vez con un poco de ambas? Es innegable que se trata de un gran "show" con todos los ingredientes de un éxito de Hollywood, e incluso con un giro sorpresivo en la trama: el surgimiento de un "Tercer hombre", François Bayrou.

Aunque su victoria parece improbable, hoy hay que tomarse seriamente a Bayrou. Antes que todo, ha encontrado en Ségolène Royal y Nicolas Sarkozy dos notables voceros de su candidatura. Mientras más Royal regresa a los "clásicos" del Partido Socialista y mientras más Sarkozy corteja abiertamente a la extrema derecha, más aumenta la popularidad de Bayrou. De hecho, las persistentes dudas que tienen los franceses acerca de la capacidad de Royal y el carácter de Sarkozy son las principales razones de su abrupta alza en las encuestas de opinión pública, desde un 7% de apoyo al comienzo de la campaña al 22% actual.

La segunda razón del espectacular repunte de Bayrou tiene menos que ver con las personalidades y más con el estado de ánimo nacional de Francia. La misma razón que hizo que la mayoría de los franceses votara "no" en el referendo sobre el borrador de Tratado Constitucional de la Unión Europa en mayo de 2005 puede hacer que voten por Bayrou, el más pro-europeo de todos los candidatos.

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