Frankreichs Dritter Mann

Sollen wir die französischen Präsidentschaftswahlen mit Bewunderung oder mit Beunruhigung verfolgen? Es ist zweifellos eine großartige “Show”, mit allen Bestandteilen eines Hollywood Blockbusters, einschließlich einer überraschenden Handlungswendung: dem Auftauchen eines “Dritten Manns”, François Bayrou.

Auch wenn sein Sieg unwahrscheinlich bleibt, muss Bayrou mittlerweile ernst genommen werden. Er hat vor allen Dingen in Ségolène Royal und Nicolas Sarkozy zwei bemerkenswerte Wortführer für seine Kandidatur gefunden. Je mehr Royal zu den “Klassikern” der Sozialistischen Partei zurückkehrt und je mehr Sarkozy öffentlich die extreme Rechte umwirbt, desto mehr steigt Bayrous Popularität. In der Tat sind anhaltende Zweifel unter den Franzosen über Royals Kompetenz und Sarkozys Charakter die primären Gründe für sein drastisches Aufsteigen in den öffentlichen Meinungsumfragen, von 7% Unterstützung zu Beginn des Wahlkampfs auf gegenwärtig 22%.

Der zweite Grund für Bayrous spektakulären Aufstieg hat weniger mit Persönlichkeiten und mehr mit Frankreichs nationaler Stimmung zu tun. Eben jener Grund, der die Mehrheit der Franzosen veranlasst hat “nein” zum Referendum über den Entwurf des Verfassungsvertrages der Europäischen Union zu sagen, könnte sie dazu bewegen für Bayrou zu stimmen, dem pro-europäischsten aller Kandidaten.

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