2012: fragil und aus dem Gleichgewicht

NEW YORK: Die Aussichten für die weltwirtschaftliche Entwicklung in 2012 sind klar, aber alles andere als schön: Rezession in Europa, bestenfalls anämisches Wachstum in den USA und ein steiler Abschwung in China und den meisten Schwellenvolkswirtschaften. Den asiatischen Volkswirtschaften droht Gefahr aus China. Lateinamerika droht Gefahr durch niedrigere Rohstoffpreise (da sich das Wachstum sowohl in China als auch in den hochentwickelten Volkswirtschaften verlangsamt). Mittel- und Osteuropa droht Gefahr aus der Eurozone. Und die Turbulenzen im Nahen Osten verursachen ernste wirtschaftliche Risiken – sowohl vor Ort als auch anderswo –, da das geopolitische Risiko hoch bleibt und deshalb hohe Ölpreise das globale Wachstum bremsen.

Eine Rezession in der Eurozone ist zum gegenwärtigen Zeitpunkt sicher. Zwar lassen sich ihre Tiefe und Länge nicht vorhersagen, doch implizieren die anhaltende Kreditverknappung, die staatlichen Schuldenprobleme, der Mangel an Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und die Sparpakete einen ernsten Abschwung.

Der US-Wirtschaft – die seit 2010 im Schneckentempo wächst – drohen beträchtliche Risiken aus der Krise in der Eurozone. Sie muss zudem eine erhebliche kalte Progression, die anhaltende Entschuldung der privaten Haushalte (bei kümmerlichen Beschäftigungszuwächsen, stagnierenden Einkommen und einem anhaltenden Abwärtsdruck auf das Immobilien- und Finanzvermögen), zunehmende Ungleichheit und politischen Stillstand bewältigen.

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