Fragile et déséquilibré en 2012

NEW YORK - Les perspectives pour l'économie globale en 2012 sont claires, mais elles ne sont pas gaies : récession en Europe, croissance anémique au mieux aux États-Unis, un ralentissement ponctuel en Chine et dans la plupart des économies de marché émergentes. Des économies asiatiques sont exposées à l'influence de la Chine. L'Amérique latine est exposée aux cours plus faibles des matières premières (car la Chine et les économies avancées ralentissent). L'Europe centrale et l'Europe de l'Est sont exposées à la zone euro. Et l'agitation au Moyen-Orient cause des risques économiques sérieux - là comme ailleurs - car le risque géopolitique demeure fort et les prix du pétrole élevés contraindront ainsi la croissance globale.

En ce moment, une récession de la zone euro est certaine. Tandis que sa profondeur et sa longueur ne peuvent pas être prévues, un resserrement de crédit continu, les problèmes de la dette souveraine, le manque de compétitivité et l'austérité fiscale impliquent une sérieuse diminution.

Les USA – avec une croissance au pas de tortue depuis 2010 - courent un risque considérable de chute du cours de la monnaie à cause de la crise de la zone euro. Ils doivent également faire face à un freinage fiscal significatif, à un désendettement continu des ménages (en particulier à la faible création d'emplois, aux revenus stagnants et à la pression persistante sur la richesse immobilière et financière), aux inégalités croissantes et à l'impasse politique.

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