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欧元20年

布鲁塞尔—二十年前的这个月,欧盟诞生了。反对普通老百姓来说,在2002年欧元现金引入之前,生活并没有发生多少变化。但在1999年1月,经济和货币联盟的“第三阶段”正式启动了,初始11个欧元区成员国之间的汇率被“不可撤销地”固定下来,货币政策权力转移到了新的欧洲央行。此后情况的发展为未来提供了重要的教训。

1999年,传统智慧认为,德国将因为欧元的引入而蒙受最大损失。除了欧洲央行对通胀可能不如德国央行那么严厉的风险之外,德国马克处于高估状态爱,德国也存在经常项目赤字。人们认为,将汇率固定在该水平会给德国工业的竞争力带来严重挑战。

但是,20年后,通货膨胀甚至比德国央行执掌货币政策权时更低,德国也长期保持着巨大的经常项目盈余,这也被视为德国工业竞争力强的证据。这是过去20年的第一个教训:个别欧元区国家的表现无法事先确定。

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