Chris Van Es

Forjando a Oposição Síria

TEL AVIV – A crise Síria tem agora um ano, com perto de 10.000 pessoas, na sua maior parte civis, mortas – e sem fim à vista. O país está num impasse: a oposição é incapaz de derrubar o regime do Presidente Bashar al-Assad, e as forças de Assad são incapazes de acabar com a resistência.

Ambas as partes estão irredutíveis: a oposição está determinada em deitar abaixo um regime que vê como ilegítimo, sectário, corrupto, tirânico e manchado de sangue, enquanto o núcleo da linha dura do regime acredita que se perseverar silenciará em última instância a oposição, enquanto qualquer concessão poria em risco a sua própria existência. A sua queda, acreditam, significaria desapropriação e morte para a liderança do regime e para uma grande parte da comunidade Alauíta de onde provém.

Assad e a sua corte são encorajados pelo falhanço do mundo em responder eficazmente à sua supressão brutal da revolta em Homs, e têm vindo a infligir castigos perversos nos seus sobreviventes como um aviso a oponentes noutros locais. Isto pode intimidar alguma da população civil da Síria no curto prazo, mas servirá apenas para exacerbar a raiva popular, e assim aumentar a probabilidade de um ajuste de contas sangrento com Assad e os seus acólitos no futuro.

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