Oval office The White House | Handout via Getty Images

S'attendre à l'inattendu en Amérique

DENVER – Lorsque le nouveau Président des États-Unis se mettra au travail en janvier 2017, certaines questions de politique étrangère évidentes l'attendront déjà, certaines plus patiemment que d'autres. Certaines d'entre elles seront des problèmes éternels, que l'on ne présente même plus : la Corée du Nord et ses ambitions nucléaires, la Chine et ses ambitions mondiales, la Russie et ses ambitions rancunières et bien sûr, le Moyen Orient et ses ambitions anormales.

Souvent, toutefois, les crises qui accueillent un nouveau Président ne sont pas celles auxquelles tout le monde s'attend. Quand Bush a pris ses fonctions en 2001, il devait augmenter les dépenses de défense, déployer un système antimissile et démanteler plusieurs obligations de longue date sur le contrôle des armements. Au lieu de cela, l'administration a été confrontée à des problèmes totalement imprévisibles, en particulier en Afghanistan et en Irak, qui l'ont mobilisée durant les huit années suivantes.

La même chose pourrait se reproduire lorsque la prochaine administration va entrer en fonction. Quelques possibilités se dessinent.

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