Oval office The White House | Handout via Getty Images

توقع ما لا يمكن توقعه في أميركا

دنفر ــ عندما يبدأ رئيس الولايات المتحدة الجديد عمله في يناير/كانون الثاني 2017، سوف يجد في انتظاره بعض قضايا السياسة الخارجية الواضحة ــ وبعضها أقل إلحاحاً من غيرها. وسوف يكون بعضها من المشاكل المزمنة التي لا تحتاج إلى تقديم أو تعريف: كوريا الشمالية وطموحاتها النووية، والصين وطموحاتها العالمية، وروسيا وطموحاتها الناقمة، وبالطبع الشرق الأوسط وطموحاته المختلة.

ولكن في كثير من الأحيان، تكون الأزمات التي تنتظر الرئيس الجديد مختلفة تماماً عن تلك التي قد يتوقعها أي شخص. فعندما تولى جورج دبليو بوش منصبه في عام 2001، كان يتوقع زيادة الإنفاق الدفاعي، ونشر الأنظمة المضادة للصواريخ، وتفكيك العديد من التزامات الحد من التسلح المتعددة الاطراف والمعلقة منذ فترة طويلة. ولكن بدلاً من ذلك، وجدت إدارته نفسها في مواجهة قضايا غير متوقعة على الإطلاق، بما في ذلك أفغانستان والعراق، والتي استهلكتها على مدار السنوات الثماني التالية.

وقد يحدث نفس الشيء مرة أخرى عندما تتولى الإدارة المقبلة السلطة. وهنا تبرز بعض الاحتمالات.

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