American dollar cut into shape of the United States

Wessen QE war das eigentlich?

CAMBRIDGE – Man kann sagen, dass die Federal Reserve der Vereinigten Staaten zwischen 1913 (als sie gegründet wurde) und den späten 1980ern die einzige Zentralbank war, die US-Staatsanleihen aufkaufte. Während dieser Zeit besaß die Fed (wie in der Abbildung dargestellt) zwischen 12% und 30% der handelbaren und ausstehenden US-Staatsanleihen. Der Höchstwert nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg wurde nach dem ersten starken Anstieg der Ölpreise 1973 erreicht, als die Bank versuchte, die lahmende US-Wirtschaft anzukurbeln.

In einer solchen Welt, in der sich alles um die USA drehte und in der die Fed der einzige Akteur war, leben wir nicht mehr – in einer Welt, in der die monetären Bedingungen in den USA und vielen anderen Ländern durch die Änderung der Geldpolitik dieser Bank erheblich beeinflusst wurden. Bereits Jahre vor der globalen Finanzkrise – und bevor der Begriff „QE“ (quantitative Erleichterung) Eingang ins Finanzwörterbuch fand – zogen die ausländischen Zentralbanken beim Besitz von US-Staatsanleihen mit der Fed gleich und überholten sie dann sogar.

Richtig los ging der Ankauf dieser Anleihen durch fremde Zentralbanken bereits im Jahr 2003, einige Jahre vor der ersten Runde quantitativer Erleichterungen (oder „QE1“) Ende 2008. In vorderster Front dieser Käufe – die wir „QE0“ nennen können – stand die Chinesische Volksbank. Bis 2006 (zu dem Höhepunkt der US-Immobilienblase) hielten staatliche Institutionen im Ausland etwa ein Drittel der ausstehenden US-Staatsanleihen und damit etwa doppelt so viel wie die Fed selbst. Unmittelbar vor der QE1 der Fed lag dieser Anteil dann bei etwa 40%.

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