American dollar cut into shape of the United States

那么,到底是谁的QE?

坎布里奇—从1913年(美联储成立于是年)到20世纪80年代后半,可以说美联储是唯一一家购买美国国债的中央银行。在这段时间里,美联储大约持有12—30%的未到期可交易美国政府证券(见图),二战后的最大持有量出现在1973年第一次石油价格暴涨后,美联储为了提振美国经济而大量购买国债。

美联储独领风骚、其货币政策严重影响国内和全球大部流动性的以美国为中心的日子早已一去不返。全球金融危机爆发前多年——“QE”(量化宽松)一词成为财经词典词条之前——外国央行的美国国债持有量便开始赶上甚至超过美联储的比重。

外国央行大量购买美国国债真正始于2003年,远早于2008年末开始实施的第一轮量化宽松(QE1)。外国央行赶超美联储——让我们称之为“QE0”——的“带头大哥”是中国人民银行。2006年(美国房地产泡沫顶峰),外国官方机构持有了大约三分之一的未到期美国国债存量,大约是美联储持有量的两倍。在美联储实施QE1前夕,这一比率为40%左右。

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