A Ilusão Nuclear

GENEBRA – Enquanto os delegados de 189 países se reúnem para preparar a próxima Conferência de Revisão do Tratado de Não-Proliferação Nuclear (TPN), marcada para 2015, relembro a minha primeira sessão informativa oficial, quando era um jovem ministro Australiano no início da década de 1980, sobre a estratégia nuclear dos Estados Unidos. Foi-me dada, nas entranhas do Pentágono, por um homem de bata branca e armado de um ponteiro, que se parecia estranhamente com Woody Allen.

Ele não disse muito sobre os incontáveis e verdadeiros seres humanos que seriam vaporizados, esmagados, cozidos, fervidos, ou irradiados até à morte se a guerra nuclear alguma vez irrompesse. A linguagem era desprendida e técnica – sobre exibições de força, capacidade de sobrevivência, forças contrárias, e alvos equivalentes. Mas foi um relato electrizante sobre a dissuasão nuclear e a mecânica da destruição mutuamente assegurada, que tanto os EUA como a União Soviética aplicaram no decorrer da Guerra Fria.

Trinta anos mais tarde, o nosso mundo não é um mundo em que existam probabilidades dos governos de Moscovo ou de Washington dispararem enxames de misseis nucleares um ao outro (se é que alguma vez o foi). Nem é um mundo onde a China ou os EUA alguma vez conceberiam iniciar intencionalmente uma guerra nuclear entre si.

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