核幻觉

日内瓦—189个国家的代表齐聚一堂,准备将于2015年召开的新一届核不扩散条约(NPT,)审议会议。这让我想起了我关于美国和战略的首次官方简报。那是在20世纪80年代,当时我还是年轻的澳大利亚部长。在五角大楼,一名长得很像伍迪·艾伦的男子穿着防尘衫、带着指示器向我们作了报告。

他并没有过多提及可能因核战争爆发而被蒸发、摧毁、烤焦、烧烂或受辐射至死的活生生的生命。他的发言是超脱的,是技术的——尽是些关于发射重量、生存能力、还击和打击目标的内容。但核威慑和确保互相摧毁机制的逻辑十分惹人注目——这也是美国和苏联在冷战期间所采用的战略。

三十年后,世界已不再是莫斯科和华盛顿对峙、准备互相投掷核弹群的世界了(如果曾经是的话)。这也不是中国或美国可以随心所欲互相发动核战争的世界了。

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