hausmann83_Rafael RodriguezNurPhoto via Getty Images_coronavirusecuador

压制发展中国家的COVID-19曲线

Mar 24, 2020 Ricardo Hausmann

李，马萨诸塞州—COVID-19正在意大利、法国、西班牙和美国等发达经济体肆虐。除了死亡和人道折磨，市场正在贴现伴随大规模违约的灾难性衰退，金融市场对公司信用风险的猛烈价格调整就是明证。

听起来令人惊悚，但发达经济体的情况比起发展中国家来说可能还要好得多，不仅疾病负担方面是如此，所面临的经济灾难也是如此。两大学术圈——公共卫生专家和宏观经济学家——已开始互相对话，但不幸的是，他们的对话大多只涉及到发达国家。

公共卫生界让传染微分方程几乎成为主流。现在，人们大谈R0因子（每一位被传染这平均可以传染给几个新病人）和通过避免近距离接触和封锁来压制传染曲线的必要性。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 Comments on this article

Dallas Weaver, Ph.D. Mar 29, 2020

To flatten the curve in poor countries you can't use disposable personal protection equipment (PPE) used in more developed countries.

Fortunately, this particular pandemic virus is easily inactivated with just temperatures above 60ºC for 30 minutes. Ovens, clothing dryers, food warmers, and saunas all can operate at these temperatures and times and that can be used to allow reuse of PPE and homemade PPE like the facemasks in the photo for this article.

The concept of using disposable equipment allows it to be utilized for all the different biological pathogens like Anthrax that can't be killed by a food warmer at 60ºC. Being a universal solution, bureaucratic rules have been created that demand disposable equipment. People can create their citizen's defenses against this virus as discussed in the following link to a pdf document we are following to protect ourselves.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/m8sgqc1cp22a2xj/Protection%20in%20the%20Covid-19%20era%20V2.pdf?dl=0
- George Seper Mar 30, 2020
  
  Thanks so much for generously passing on your document Dallas. It is full of useful information and tips to help people survive this thing in an achievable way. I have circulated the PDF file widely here in Australia and I hope that it will help people. Once again, much obliged!
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Kurt Kristensen Mar 29, 2020

This analysis is pragmatic, professional and remarkable in its underlying suggestions that the current pandemic may not be effectively, timely or compassionately addressed unless the global community rises to a level of involvement and commitment that will empower existing or new world-wide institutions to effect credible intervention-in time.

The global community so far has been unable to address the slow, but accelerating impact of a changing climate system, in part, because the specific impacts and areas of most noticeable impact have been removed from high density urban areas. The pandemic, by contrast, is specifically targeting high-density urban areas with significant population interactions with all global areas via tourism and commerce. Perhaps, with a perfect storm, the global community may now be approaching the emotional capacity to reach a consensus that, indeed, we are in this together, and need an effective, compassionate and timely strategy to address both climate and pandemic issues.

Some areas of 'do-able' intervention that may be worthwhile considering might be:

1. Consider the scenario of having 100 million developing country individuals contribute $100 each year to help individuals in developing countries via micro-finance organization such as www.kiva.org. Donated funds enter a revolving loan status that can be re-loaned again and again; Kiva borrowers have a repayment rate of over 95%.

2. Consider empowering WHO with sufficient funds and staff to develop a long-term status enabling it to deliver trust-worthy and effective preventive solutions in collaboration with mega-donors like the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

3. Consider a global, country-by-country, required 2-year public service duty for all individuals, with options for a variety of public health, community, development, climate and education, with public funding paying for these individuals to complete graduate and professional degrees in areas of demand globally, and a 2 year post-graduate service in an area of high need. It appears as suggested by many of our young people, and articulated passionately by a young female Swede, that we, globally, desperately need a true commitment of service to community and others.
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Vaibhav Mathur Mar 29, 2020

Isn't that the response to the COVID-19 pandemic will advance/ expedite the already pending stimulus in many large economies? For both political and economic reasons USA, UK, and India were gearing up for fiscal stimulus to support the slowdown in the growth and boost/ strengthen the key sectors.
Hopefully, countries had thought of the measures and made arrangements that may be infused into the economy very soon.
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Michael Public Mar 24, 2020

An alternative approach is to isolate and support those over eighty or with high blood pressure and diabetes - the rest wear masks, distance and have their temperature checked every day, a kind of lock-down where work continues for 90% of industry instead of for just 10%.

But perhaps we are wrong, perhaps the lock-down will work extremely well, stopping the virus in its tracks, and the debtors and creditors will be wise enough to bridge this time gap in a sensible manner. But from what I have seen so far, I remain a skeptic.
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Michael Public Mar 24, 2020

As someone who lives in Southern Hemisphere in a country with extremely limited fiscal space I have had over the last few days the distinct intuition that this lock-down will neither work (through lack of discipline, equipment) nor be affordable in the least. Yet, the main online newspaper ran a poll, and a paltry 3% of people agreed with me that a 21 day lock-down was a mistake.

The first issue one of the herd fallacy - people feel safe if they do what everyone else is doing, regardless of the logical consequences, and the rest of the World is locking down.

The second issue is one of a certainty fallacy - we know that if the virus spreads to everyone we will experience deaths of x. It can be calculated. The issue with the economic downturn is that we cannot estimate it, and further measure its long tail of ongoing effects - see the 'deaths from despair' in the US heartland. Most people will choose a guaranteed dollar over a 10% chance to win twenty dollars - humans are willing to pay a high price for certainty, sometimes too high.
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