Paul Lachine

إصلاح الحفرة الواجب إصلاحها

لندن ـ إن "قوانين الحفر"، مثلها كمثل قوانين الفيزياء، لا ترحم. فإذا وجدت نفسك في حفرة وكنت تريد الخروج منها، فإن أول ما يتعين عليك أن تفعله هو أن تكف عن الحفر. وإذا وجدت نفسك في مواجهة عدد من الحفر التي يتعين عليك ردمها وكنت تريد أن تعرف بأيها تبدأ، فإنك تختار الحفرة التي تفرض القدر الأعظم من الخطر. والواقع أن هذه القوانين تنطبق بشكل خاص على قرارات التمويل الحكومي.

حين تحدث جون ماينارد كينز عن البطالة الجزئية المستديمة، لم يكن يعني أن الاقتصاد يتجمد في أعقاب الصدمات الكبرى عند مستوى واحد لا يتغير من النشاط الضعيف. ولكنه كان يعتقد أن تعافي الاقتصاد انطلاقاً من أدنى مستوياته لابد وأن يكون بطيئاً وغير مؤكد وضعيف وعُرضة للانتكاس في غياب الحوافز الخارجية. والواقع أن "توازن البطالة الجزئية" الذي تحدث عنه يُعَد شكلاً من أشكال الجذب وليس حالة ثابتة.

وهذا هو الوضع الذي وصفه ألان جرينسبان رئيس مجلس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي السابق في الولايات المتحدة بشبه الركود، وهو مصطلح أفضل قليلاً من مصطلح "الركود المزدوج"، فهو ينم عن التعافي الهزيل في ظل نوبات من الانفعال التي تتخللها فترات انهيار. وهو الوضع الذي نعيشه اليوم.

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