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Tratar dos incentivos ao investimento fixo

LONDRES – No passado mês de Fevereiro, comentei que a economia global, no fim de 2016, se encontrava numa posição cíclica mais forte do que a maioria das pessoas previra, dados os sobressaltos políticos dos 12 meses anteriores. Esse impulso ascendente continuou durante o primeiro trimestre de 2017. De acordo com os últimos indicadores do tipo nowcast, o crescimento mundial do PIB está a ultrapassar os 4%, talvez o seu melhor desempenho desde antes da crise financeira de 2008.

Mesmo assim, alguns observadores (e não somente os pessimistas crónicos) contrapuseram que as provas permanecem irrisórias, e que é impossível prever quanto tempo durará o impulso económico actual. Na verdade, houve outros períodos durante a longa recuperação pós-2008 em que o crescimento voltou, apenas para rapidamente se desvanecer e voltar ao marasmo.

Para impulsionar o crescimento económico de longo prazo, o investimento empresarial tem de aumentar. Infelizmente, é mais fácil dizê-lo do que fazê-lo. Especialmente nas economias ocidentais, o investimento fixo não residencial era precisamente o factor que faltava nos anteriores e breves ciclos de aceleração.

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