City of London Oli Scarff/Getty Images

Neue Anreize für Anlageinvestitionen

LONDON – Bereits im Februar schrieb ich, die Weltwirtschaft sei Ende 2016 trotz der politischen Umbrüche des Vorjahres viel stärker gewesen als allgemein erwartet. Diese Aufwärtsbewegung hat sich im ersten Quartal von 2017 fortgesetzt. Die jüngsten Kurzfristindikatoren lassen auf ein weltweites BIP-Wachstum von über 4% schließen – vielleicht das bisher stärkste Wachstum nach der Finanzkrise von 2008.

Aber manche Beobachter – und nicht nur die chronischen Pessimisten – halten dagegen, dass die Hinweise darauf immer noch lückenhaft sind, und dass nicht prognostiziert werden kann, wie lange der aktuelle wirtschaftliche Aufschwung noch anhält. Tatsächlich gab es während der langen Erholung nach 2008 auch Zeiten, in denen das Wachstum nur kurz aufflackerte und dann wieder versiegte.

Damit die Wirtschaft langfristig wachsen kann, müssen die Unternehmen stärker investieren. Leider ist dies einfacher gesagt als getan. Was bei den früheren kurzlebigen Beschleunigungszyklen gefehlt hat, waren genügend Investitionen in wirtschaftliche Anlagegüter – insbesondere in den westlichen Volkswirtschaften.

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